Important Question Marks

I talked yesterday briefly about Beckett dropping to the #4 pitcher in the Boston rotation. Today, the Globe's Tony Massarotti goes more in-depth about the questions surrounding Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon.

Let's start with Beckett. No matter how you slice it, the Red Sox' decision to place him fourth, ahead of only Daisuke Matsuzaka, speaks volumes. Whatever the real explanation for the move, the Red Sox are now at a point where they feel they need to protect Beckett, bring him along slowly, ease him into things. They are treating him far more like Dice-K than they are Jon Lester. A year ago at this time, Beckett's future with the Sox was front and center, the team ultimately signing him to a four-year, $68 million contract (an average of $17 million per) that has yet to even begin.
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Papelbon returned to the team following easily his worst season as a major league closer. Once regarded as a sure thing, he blew as many saves last season (eight) as he had blown in the two previous years combined. The rate of walks he issues has climbed as steadily as gas prices (now up to 3.76 per nine innings.) Papelbon really has not been the same since October 2008, when the Red Sox leaned on him heavily in the postseason and when he might not have been able to pitch in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series had the situation called for it.

Yeah...as reliable as both men have been for Boston over the years, they are very much unknown quantities going into 2011. Beckett has literally been up-and-down since 2007. In 2007 and 2009, Beckett posted at least 17 wins, had sub-4 ERAs and made the All-Star team. In 2008 and 2010...ERA's over 4 and under 200 IP. 2010 in particular was horrid: 5.78 ERA, only 21 starts and a 1.535 WHIP. It remains to be seen if Beckett can recapture his form, but I think he has to do better than last year.

Paps, on the other hand...the one thing that cannot be argued against is his save total: 35 or more saves in each of the first five years of his career. No other pitcher (at least none I could find) in the modern history of the game has done that. On the other hand, in 2010 his ERA hit a career high (3.95) as did his WHIP (1.269), W/9 ratio (3.8) and blown saves (8). His WAR was 0.4, which is a horrid number for any starting player, let alone your closer. And frankly, he hasn't been all that encouraging in spring training.

Now, the Sox have more leeway when it comes to Paps. With Bard and Jenks, they can pull Paps if his 2010 form continues. If Beckett goes off the rails, though...it gets dicey. The Sox have the immortal Tim Wakefield if needed and Aceves could pull spot starter duty. Later in the year, Junichi Tazawa could factor back in since he'll be recovered from Tommy John surgery. But other than that, the Sox do not have a lot of Fenway-ready starting pitching. It's Boston's real weak spot. Beckett needs to find his form if Boston is going to fulfill their potential this year.