Can Boston Win 100 Games?

That is a question being asked out and about the Intertubes. It's based off of a comment Josh Beckett made during spring training, where he said he thought this squad could win 100 games.

So can they? On the face of it, why not? The Sox have a much deadlier lineup with the addition of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez in particular should feast on pitching in Fenway. Consider some of the parks where he has had his best hitting efforts over the past three years:

From 2008-2010

Busch Stadium (2009-10): .375 Avg | 1.037 OPS


Citizens Bank Park: .357 Avg | 1.310 OPS


Miller Park: .419 Avg | 1.277 OPS


Wrigley Field: .293 Avg | 1.042 OPS

All these field have a right field line of 330 ft or more. Wrigley's is over 350 ft. Of course, as we all know, Fenway's right line is a mere 302 feet. And Gonzalez has an amazing talent for pulling the ball. Add to that Fenway's short left field line (310) and Gonzalez should be destroying Fenway down the lines in 2011.

Add in Carl Crawford and his abilities, and you have a lineup where you really can't pitch around anyone until you get to #7 in the lineup. Tack on their excellent gloves and they will be preventing runs from scoring as well. Then you have a revamped bullpen which, on paper, is one of the best in the AL.

So where does Boston's potential barrier to 100 wins reside? In the starting rotation. For as good as Lester and Buchholz were in 2010, there are a whole lot of questions coming after.

How will Lackey pitch? Will we get a vintage Beckett from 2007 or 2009? Will we get a sub-par Beckett from 2008 or 2010? Which Daisuke will we see? And God forbid this happens, but how will Boston cope with an injury? We have Wakes and then...what exactly?

The rotation is strong but there is little if any depth behind it. And that will be the single biggest determining factor as to whether Boston can win 100 games this year.

There is one other factor...history. Boston has won 100 or more games just three times. The last time was in 1946, when Boston went 104-50. And that took two 20-game winners (Tex Hughson and Dave "Boo" Ferriss), Mickey Harris having a career season (17-9, he never won more than eight games in any other season) and the team ranking first in the AL in batting average, OBP, slugging, OPS and fielding percentage. The closest Boston has come since then is 1978 (99-64) and 2004 (98-64).

Bottom line? Boston definitely has the talent to win 100 games. But it hinges on their starting pitching remaining healthy and some key players returning to form.