He wasn't even that bad; if you allow for the lousy fifth, he did a good job. But I keep coming back to this column from Tom Verducci at SI about pitchers in danger of a dropoff. After listing his 10 pitchers (which was headlined by Lester), Verducci writes:
How much should those guys be worried? Over the previous three years I red-flagged a total of 24 young pitchers at the start of those seasons. Of those 24 at-risk pitchers, 16 were hurt in that same season. Only one of the 24 pitchers managed to stay healthy and lower his ERA: Ubaldo Jimenez of Colorado, a guy I said would be less at risk because of his powerful body type.
He does say that Lester stands a better chance of overcoming this trend due to his size and his age. Also, the Red Sox coaches are notorious for their caution with pitching.
But Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum are on this list as well. Hamels is out right now with a gimpy elbow and Lincecum got shelled in the Giants' opener against the Brewers. One game does not a season make, but it's a little question in the back of my mind that isn't going to go away any time soon.
But enough of that for now. It's Daisuke on the mound this afternoon. I am expecting a lot of walks but no runs. I know, I'm really out on a limb here...
5 comments:
If Dice goes 6+ innings, I will be thrilled myself.
I'm with you, holding my breath about Lester. Only time will tell.
How's your little girl holding up?
Oooh, sorry! I just saw the website!
Keeping in mind that Lester was pretty dominant until he ran into the Rays in the post season. They just might be a team that has his number.
Just an idea.
Well, Lester does have a bit of inner strength going for him that some don't. I think he'll be alright.
I think you guys are right. I think Lester will be okay. But the phenomenon is pretty well-established. I just hop his size and age trump the issues that come with a sudden spike in innings pitched.
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