Burned

If you throw 100 pitches before you hit seven innings of work, odds are you will end up with the big "L" next to your name in the boxscore.

Now, if you happen to be Daisuke Matsuzaka you beat the odds on this more often that not. In 2008, you threw 100+ pitches 14 times in the regular season in less than seven innings of work. In those games you went 10-0 with four no-decisions. Daisuke should've been on a plane to Vegas with an odds-defying performance like that.

But math is a cold and harsh mistress. It has no give, and one of the rules is that the odds eventually even out.

Now, I am not saying that Daisuke is going to go 5-14 this year. I don't believe that for a second. What I am saying is that he won't be able to dance on that edge this year and get away with it like he did in 2008. Daisuke has to learn better control. Three home runs and three walks in five innings won't get it done this year. And that is why the Sox lost 4-3 last night to Tampa, a result that has a painfully familiar feel to it.

This Sox team is built on pitching and defense. That isn't to say their bats aren't powerful; even without Manny this team can drive in runs. Although if Jed Lowrie doesn't start doing something with his bat I may do the unthinkable and pine for the return of Julio Lugo. But Boston's pitching will determine their finish come September. And if Daisuke doesn't get it going, it will be that much harder for Boston to play baseball in October.

At least Youk is pulling his own weight...

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Back To Earth

I guess it wouldn't make sense to get too despondent over last night's loss, just as it didn't make sense to get too ecstatic over Boston's Opening Night win. But I feel a little trepidation over Lester's performance.

He wasn't even that bad; if you allow for the lousy fifth, he did a good job. But I keep coming back to this column from Tom Verducci at SI about pitchers in danger of a dropoff. After listing his 10 pitchers (which was headlined by Lester), Verducci writes:

How much should those guys be worried? Over the previous three years I red-flagged a total of 24 young pitchers at the start of those seasons. Of those 24 at-risk pitchers, 16 were hurt in that same season. Only one of the 24 pitchers managed to stay healthy and lower his ERA: Ubaldo Jimenez of Colorado, a guy I said would be less at risk because of his powerful body type.

He does say that Lester stands a better chance of overcoming this trend due to his size and his age. Also, the Red Sox coaches are notorious for their caution with pitching.

But Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum are on this list as well. Hamels is out right now with a gimpy elbow and Lincecum got shelled in the Giants' opener against the Brewers. One game does not a season make, but it's a little question in the back of my mind that isn't going to go away any time soon.

But enough of that for now. It's Daisuke on the mound this afternoon. I am expecting a lot of walks but no runs. I know, I'm really out on a limb here...

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Good Start To The Season

So, where do you begin? Mighty Mite's second-pitch homer? Varitek wrapping one around the Pesky Pole? How about Josh Beckett looking like he is almost in mid-season form?

I say all of the above. With only a couple of hiccups in the bullpen, the Red Sox looked solid in their 5-3 win over Tampa.

Yes, it's only one game into the season. But how can you not be encouraged by the performance of Josh Beckett? Seven innings of two-hit ball to go with one earned run and 10 strikeouts...hell of a lot better than Sabathia's opening. Beckett was really working his curve ball for strikes as well with an occasional hard slider. If Beckett can stay healthy, we could be looking at another 2007 season.

If I was worried about anything, it would be Ellsbury going 0-4 at the top of the lineup and Oki's problems. Ellsbury needs to get on base at least once in a game, especially with a potent bat like Pedroia's right behind him. As for Oki, he looked like he had little in the way of control. Of course, he started slow last year and picked up the pace. So maybe we're just doing it that way again.

Bottom line is that the Sox have a one-game lead on the Rays and Yanks. Yes, it is only April. But the wins that come now tend to matter in September.

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For One Day

For one day, watching the new Yankees team play on the field was a thing of beauty.

You had CC Sabathia give up six runs in 4.1 innings, which gives him a stellar ERA of 12.42 to start the year. He didn't have a single strikeout, the first such o-fer for Sabathia since 2005. And Yankee fans, take heart; he started out the same way last year. And he improved to 6-8 with a 3.83 ERA before getting traded to the Brewers. I am sure his NL numbers will translate back to the American League. Isn't that always the way?

And then there was Teixeira. With A-Rod down, you can see him trying to take over that role in the lineup. When he went 0-4, I was amazed at how Teixeira really seemed to get what A-Rod was all about. And that fielder's choice to end the eighth with two runners on and the Yanks down one? I thought that was A-Rod at the plate.

Yes sir, for one day it was a joy to watch the Yankees. Now, if we can only get Burnett to channel Pavano...

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Looking Back: 2005 NFL Draft

With the 2009 NFL Draft coming up and the Patriots holding a bounty of picks in the top 100, I thought it would be interesting to see how their past few drafts have played out. So let's take a look at the draft class of 2005.

1st Round: Logan Mankins (OG, Fresno State) - The first guard taken in the draft, this pick was masterful. The Pats picked up their left guard for the next 10-15 years. Mankins has been to a Pro Bowl (2007) and was named an All-Pro guard that same year. It goes without saying that Mankins has to be given an extension by the Pats before he hits the market. Players like Logan don't come around too often.

2nd Round: None (traded to Baltimore) - In return, the Patriots received the Ravens 2005 3rd round pick, one of their 6th round picks and their 2006 3rd round pick.

3rd Round (1): Ellis Hobbs (CB, Iowa State) - Another solid pick by the Pats, and the one made with Baltimore's 3rd rounder. Hobbs has been a starter in the backfield since 2007.

3rd Round (2): Nick Kaczur (OG, Toledo) - Another 2005 pick who starts for the Pats. Kaczur was moved to right tackle and has been the starter there since 2006.

4th Round: James Sanders (S, Fresno State) - The second Bulldog chosen by the Patriots in the 2005 draft and another player who starts for the Patriots today. Sanders signed a three-year deal with the Pats last month, turning down more money elsewhere to return to the team.

5th Round (1): None - Traded to the Lions along with a sixth-round pick for Detroit's 2006 4th-round pick

5th Round (2): Ryan Claridge (LB, UNLV) - The first miss by the Pats brain trust in 2005. Claridge stuck with the team for one season and was released in 2006. He is currently out of the NFL.

6th Round: None - The Pats traded their 6th and 7th round picks to the Packers for this pick, which they then traded to the Raiders for their 7th-round pick and their 2006 5th-round pick.

7th Round (1): Matt Cassel (QB, USC) - This would be the Raiders' 7th-round pick. As we know, the Pats eventually would flip this into a 2nd-round pick in the talent-rich 2009 NFL draft. Cassel now starts for the Chiefs.

7th Round (2): Andy Stokes (TE, William Penn) - Andy was Mr. Irrelevant in 2005. He was cut by the Pats during training camp.

So...that's a pretty good draft. Out of seven players, five are in the NFL and four are starting for the Patriots in 2009. That's the kind of record you aim for in the draft. If the Pats can hit like this in 2009, they'll be in good shape.

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Opening Day?

Don't count on it. With a thunderstorm in the offing around 3 or so, and rain before that, I am guessing we'll get a doubleheader tomorrow if we're lucky.

(Update: Stupid me. Read the schedule wrong. There is no game scheduled tomorrow for just this very reason. And sure enough, the Sox postponed the game until 4:05 tomorrow afternoon. So it's still just one game. And I need to get some glasses.)

But if we do, it should be a hell of a way to kick off the year. Beckett and Shields face off in a rematch from Game Six of the ALCS. Beckett got the better of Shields that day and we can only hope that trend continues.

Going into this season, the big questions all seem to revolve around health. The health of Papi and Lowell. The health of Beckett and Daisuke. The health of Saito and Penny. That always makes one a wee bit nervous. But, on the upside, all these gentlemen have looked hale and healthy in the spring.

The bigger question, to me, is whether the Rays can repeat as champions. Last year they caught a lot of breaks, most of their key guys were healthy and they snuck up on a lot of teams. Don't take that as a dig, Tampa fans. That's how teams get to the World Series; they catch the breaks and keep their main players on the field. But the odds of them doing it two years in a row are rather slim.

The last time a team showed up in two or more consecutive World Series was when the Yankees did it from 1998 to 2001, and half their team was roided out in the process. Nowadays, it is very hard for a team to get to the finals two years in a row. I think the Rays will be contenders for years to come, provided they can pay their players. But I don't see them going back.

And we all know how I feel about the Yankees...check out my posts at Sox vs. Stripes for a more detailed breakdown.

But I will throw one random prediction out right now; watch out for Kansas City. Remember how Tampa snuck everyone last year? Well, I don't think the Royals are going to the World Series, but they will break .500 this year.

They have a solid 1-2 punch in their rotation with Meche and Grienke, and Kyle Davies could be a decent #3. The bullpen isn't atrocious and they have a lights-out closer in Joakim Soria. KC has Crisp leading off, which improves their lineup right away. And they have some decent bats.

So that is my "out on a limb" prediction; the Royals will go 85-77. Which doesn't seem like much, but for the Royals that's a parade-worthy season.

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Note About New "Read More" link

They are only valid for the last post forward. So when you see them on older posts, ignore them. It's an unfortunate byproduct of changing the template.

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